Split GOP Vote for Simi Valley Mayor Could Give Democrats a Council Majority
The race has become a debate over growth, homelessness, school finances and public safety, and over which direction the city will take. Simi Valley, Ventura County's most Republican city, could soon have a Democratic mayor. Three Republicans and one Democrat are running on Nov. 3, and with no runoff, the winner may need only about a third of the vote. If the Democrat, school board trustee Kareem Jubran, wins along with two council candidates his party has endorsed, Democratic-backed members would control the five-member City Council.
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What's Going On
The Republicans are Mayor Dee Dee Cavanaugh, who was appointed in January 2025; Councilman Mike Judge, who has served on the council since 2010; and Robert Clarizio, 58, a communications technology consultant. Mr. Jubran is endorsed by the Ventura County Democratic Party. A fifth candidate, Wayne Hampton Holland III, 36, a Broadway producer and financier, has no party preference. Mr. Clarizio and Mr. Holland have both run for mayor before.
Party labels do not appear on the ballot, because city races in California are nonpartisan. And the mayor is elected by plurality: whoever gets the most votes wins, even with far less than half. With three Republicans running, the party's voters could split, letting a candidate with a smaller but more united base finish first.
That could matter in the only Ventura County city where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, about 32,400 to 29,100 as of May. In 2024, it was also the only city in the county that Donald J. Trump carried.
Los Angeles, over the Santa Susana Pass, requires a majority, so Mayor Karen Bass, who won about 34 percent in June, faces City Council member Nithya Raman, also a Democrat, in a Nov. 3 runoff. Simi Valley has no second round.
Why It Matters
The next mayor will help decide how much Simi Valley grows, where homeless housing could go and how the city pays for public safety.
Control of the Council
The mayor is one of five votes on the City Council, and three council seats are also on the ballot. The county Democratic Party has endorsed Sam Cohen in District 2 and Josh Gray in District 4. Its website already features a quote from Mike James, a Simi Valley Unified trustee: "Simi Valley saved its Democratic School Board majority thanks to generous donors like you!"
A Debate Over Growth
Housing is the clearest dividing line. Mr. Jubran's campaign calls for a mix of new single-family homes, townhomes, "apartments that are reasonable for our area" and mixed-use development near shops and transit, an approach it calls "smart growth, not unchecked growth."
Mr. Judge, a retired Los Angeles police officer, has made preserving Simi Valley's small-town feel a priority. "The developments can't be big or huge," he said at a September forum. "Traffic won't handle it. Our infrastructure is limited." He has pointed to about 800 housing units already in the city's pipeline that have stalled over financing and environmental requirements.
Ms. Cavanaugh has said the city needs a variety of housing so that families priced out of Simi Valley can stay, and she has proposed a "Vision 2050" plan to involve residents in long-range planning.
Mr. Clarizio questions whether the city's roads, utilities and schools can handle more growth. "To me, it's a city that's not ready," he said.
Jubran's School Board Record
Mr. Jubran, 41, a construction engineering executive, was first elected to the Simi Valley Unified School District board in 2018. His campaign cites his board service as evidence of fiscal oversight.
Declining enrollment has squeezed the district's budget during his tenure. In early 2025, the board voted to cut jobs ranging from teachers to library technicians. This school year's budget, approved unanimously in June, projects about $255 million in spending against about $250 million in revenue. It eliminates 15 teaching positions, mostly through retirements and expiring temporary contracts, and leaves a fund balance of nearly $44 million.
This spring, the board also weighed a school facilities bond that could have raised $348 million or more, then let the deadline pass. Superintendent Hani Youssef warned that dropping it would create "very difficult financial challenges." News coverage of the job cuts and the bond did not report how Mr. Jubran voted.
Test scores were nearly flat. On state tests in the 2025-26 school year, 49.7 percent of Simi Valley Unified students did not meet grade-level standards in English, and nearly two in three fell short in math. The results are roughly in line with statewide scores, but some groups lag further behind: only about one in four Hispanic and Black students met math standards, and scores for Black students fell in both subjects from the year before.
Mr. Jubran's last campaign also drew a challenge. In 2024, the Ventura County Republican Party argued that he was barred from running again. The district's term limits count a partial term of "more than two years" as a full term, and his first term had lasted two years and four days. Dr. Youssef, who answers to the board on which Mr. Jubran sits, called it "a non-issue." News coverage did not report a court challenge, and voters re-elected Mr. Jubran with about 59 percent of the vote.
Cavanaugh's and Judge's Records
Ms. Cavanaugh and Mr. Judge have records of their own. Ms. Cavanaugh, a council member since 2016, became mayor when the council appointed her after Mayor Fred Thomas died in January 2025, so voters have not yet elected her to the post. She has said economic development matters because it pays for city services, and she wants to review the city's permitting process to attract businesses.
Mr. Judge, a councilman for 16 years, has said, "Public safety is my number one priority." Both he and Ms. Cavanaugh were on the council when it voted unanimously in 2023 to buy the first Flock cameras. "I think it's wonderful," Ms. Cavanaugh said at the time.
School Safety and a Possible Sales Tax
School safety is another open question. Last school year, the number of school resource officers on Simi Valley campuses fell to zero after one retired and another went on leave. A working group that includes Mr. Judge, Councilman Joseph Ayala and two school board members is studying how to pay for more officers. "Three is a nice number, but four would be the optimum number," Mr. Judge said.
City Manager Samantha Argabrite said this year that after her talks with Dr. Youssef, the district had discussed a possible voter-approved sales tax increase to help fund school safety. No measure has been proposed, and news coverage has not reported where Mr. Jubran stands on the idea. All four candidates for the District 4 council seat oppose a sales tax for school resource officers.
Flock Cameras
Privacy has surfaced as well. Simi Valley police use 26 Flock Safety cameras that read license plates; the City Council voted unanimously in May 2023 to buy the first 23. This year, police said what appeared to be a vendor error had let federal and out-of-state agencies reach local data, and residents raised concerns at an April council meeting.
Asked about the cameras in interviews posted to TikTok by Nik Cullen on Oct. 8, Mr. Jubran said, "I wasn't aware that there were Flock cameras until more recently. I don't remember there being a public discussion or input on that." He cited "real Fourth Amendment concerns" and called for a public forum. Ms. Cavanaugh said residents had come to council meetings to comment on the cameras and that the city was "transparent" about the error. Mr. Judge said the city needs "a strong policy on its use."
Homeless Housing
Simi Valley has no permanent homeless shelter. In June, the City Council voted unanimously to support a feasibility study by the Samaritan Center, a local nonprofit, of transitional housing paired with counseling, case management and job training. In August, the council let the group evaluate four city-owned sites, including two in the Metrolink station parking area, with Councilwoman Elaine Litster casting the only vote against the list. Neither vote commits the city to building anything.
Ms. Cavanaugh once served on the Samaritan Center's board, and Mr. Jubran's platform says he would work with the group as part of a homelessness strategy focused on treatment. The nonprofit says its mission focuses on people with ties to Simi Valley.
The Big Picture
Electing a Democrat as mayor could mark the beginning of a more liberal Simi Valley, one closer to the politics of its neighbors in Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley. A council majority backed by the party, alongside a school board it already counts as its own, could move the city toward the growth Mr. Jubran has called for, including more apartments and mixed-use development.
The evidence that Simi Valley voters are moving left is mixed. Democrats make up about 34 percent of registered voters, within four points of Republicans, and the city narrowly backed Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. But the Republican registration edge grew slightly between 2024 and 2026, voters with no party preference are the fastest-growing group, and Ruth Luevanos, a former Democratic councilwoman, won only about 30 percent of the vote against Supervisor Janice Parvin in June.
Other cities that turned to Democratic mayors offer no single lesson. San Diego, led by Republican mayors for most of the three decades before 2020, has faced repeated budget shortfalls under Democrat Todd Gloria. The city started collecting a voter-approved trash fee and added parking fees at Balboa Park, then scaled both back after residents objected. Jacksonville, Fla., which elected Democrat Donna Deegan in 2023, has kept its property tax rate flat under her.
Research suggests party labels matter less at City Hall than in state capitals or Washington. A study of U.S. mayoral elections published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that a mayor's party had no measurable effect on the size of city government, spending or crime, but that incumbent mayors hold a large advantage when they run again. In Simi Valley, where mayors serve two-year terms, this year's winner would face voters again in 2028.
How to Vote
Mail ballots have gone out to every registered voter in Simi Valley. A ballot counts if it is postmarked by Tuesday, Nov. 3, and arrives within seven days, or it can be returned to any vote center or official ballot drop box in Ventura County by 8 p.m. on Election Day. Vote center locations and hours are listed at VenturaVote.org.
The Simi Valley Ledger is an Official Publication of The Freedom Project © 2026
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